A nationalist candidate backed by former U.S. President Donald Trump has won Poland’s presidential election, dealing a blow to centrist forces and complicating Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s efforts to realign the country more closely with the European Union.
Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and political newcomer, secured 50.9% of the vote in Sunday’s runoff, narrowly defeating centrist Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who garnered 49.1%, according to official results announced Monday. Nawrocki’s win ensures continued influence for the right-wing Law & Justice party over the presidency, even as Tusk’s pro-EU coalition governs the parliament.
The outcome underscores deep divisions in Polish society. Trzaskowski drew support from urban centers and young voters, while Nawrocki mobilized conservative, rural constituencies by campaigning on Catholic values, skepticism of the EU, and tough anti-immigration rhetoric.
Nawrocki’s win is also seen as a rare success for Trump’s MAGA-aligned movement abroad, after recent nationalist defeats in Germany, Romania, and Canada. His campaign benefited from vocal support by Trump allies and a brief Oval Office meeting with Trump himself last month.
Strains on Tusk’s Reform Agenda
Since returning to power 19 months ago, Tusk has struggled to advance key reforms — particularly efforts to restore judicial independence and ease strict abortion laws — amid resistance from the outgoing nationalist president Andrzej Duda. Nawrocki’s victory is expected to prolong that legislative gridlock, posing fresh challenges to Tusk’s coalition and its credibility in Brussels.
The Prime Minister may call a vote of confidence in his government this week, according to local media reports. Coalition leaders met on Monday to address growing internal tensions, but Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia dismissed rumors of political collapse as “unnecessary theatrics.”
Tusk had hoped to steer Poland firmly back toward the EU mainstream, rebuild rule of law institutions, and strengthen support for Ukraine amid Russia’s continued aggression. But Nawrocki’s rise could stall or reverse much of that agenda.
Markets React Cautiously
Polish financial markets, which had rallied since Tusk’s 2023 electoral win, showed signs of concern. The zloty fell as much as 0.5% against the euro on Monday before recovering slightly. Warsaw’s WIG20 stock index and government bonds had seen strong performance over the past year, but analysts now warn of potential volatility as political uncertainty grows.
Tusk ally and Minister of State Assets Jakub Jaworowski warned that the result could increase geopolitical instability. “It has been difficult, but it will now be even harder,” he said Monday at a conference in Sopot.
Divisive Campaign, Powerful Presidency
The presidential campaign highlighted the country’s stark ideological divide. Trzaskowski — a liberal, multilingual technocrat — ran on a platform of pro-European integration and social progress. Nawrocki, in contrast, emphasized national pride, family values, and opposition to what he called “EU overreach.”
During the campaign, Nawrocki was dogged by scandals including a questionable property deal and allegations of involvement in orchestrated fights between football hooligans. He also sparked controversy by rejecting Ukraine’s future NATO membership and aligning Poland’s defense posture more closely with the U.S.
Despite his limited political experience, Nawrocki heads the Institute for National Remembrance and is seen as a symbolic figure for Poland’s nationalist base. His five-year presidential term begins on August 6.
As president, Nawrocki will hold veto power over legislation, appoint the central bank governor, and serve as commander-in-chief — a position that could significantly constrain Tusk’s ability to govern and fulfill EU commitments.
Regional and International Implications
With Poland playing an increasingly important role in NATO’s eastern flank and as a supporter of Ukraine, the political shakeup in Warsaw will be closely watched across Europe and in Washington. Trump’s tacit backing of Nawrocki signals his continued influence over nationalist politics abroad, as his allies seek to counter liberal and pro-EU movements globally.
President Duda, who will formally transfer power to Nawrocki in August, welcomed the result and emphasized the importance of continued strong ties with the U.S. “Polish voters support the continuation of policy that includes building close relations with the United States and basing our security on it,” Duda said during a summit in Vilnius.
The result leaves Poland’s political future uncertain, with heightened polarization and renewed tension between national sovereignty and EU alignment.
