Sudan’s shifting alliances raise alarms as Tel Aviv weighs preemptive options
From Fragile State to Strategic Risk
Sudan’s diplomatic landscape has shifted dramatically since re-establishing ties with Iran in October 2023. While the country remains torn by a brutal civil war that erupted in April 2023, the Sudanese government has moved away from its previous normalization path with Israel, instead embracing a new alignment with Tehran.
This pivot has raised deep concerns in Tel Aviv, where security officials now view Sudan not as a future partner, but as a potential Iranian outpost on the Red Sea. Israeli intelligence assessments warn that Iran is exploiting Sudan’s political vacuum, military fragmentation, and institutional collapse to establish covert influence, reviving old ties with Sudan’s Islamist movement.
Israel Reassesses Sudan as a Threat
According to leaked intelligence reports, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have received shipments of Iranian drones, missile components, and even prohibited chemical and biological weapons. These transfers reportedly took place during the current civil war, coordinated with factions inside the SAF loyal to General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and figures linked to the defunct Islamist National Congress Party.
In response, Israel has devised contingency plans for preemptive airstrikes targeting Sudanese military infrastructure and leadership.
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Reports mention Israeli F-16 patrols along the Red Sea corridor to deter Iranian ambitions.
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Israeli defense planners are determined to block any attempt by Iran to establish military logistics hubs inside Sudan.
Port Sudan: A Flashpoint on the Red Sea
Tensions escalated further after Iranian warships docked in Port Sudan, just weeks after the Flamingo military base was targeted in an airstrike.
Israeli analysts see this as clear evidence of growing military cooperation between Khartoum and Tehran, marking Sudan’s entry into the broader Iran–Israel confrontation arena.
This has effectively transformed Sudan from a country once expected to normalize with Israel into a potential conduit for Iranian arms shipments—and a launch point for strikes against Israeli and allied interests in the Red Sea.
Washington Tightens Its Grip
Meanwhile, the United States under President Donald Trump has begun re-engaging the Sudan crisis, seeking a diplomatic win after high-profile foreign policy setbacks in Ukraine and Gaza.
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U.S. sanctions took effect in June, targeting Sudan’s military-linked networks.
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American officials are reportedly pushing for an immediate ceasefire and the removal of hardline Islamist figures embedded in the Sudanese government, framing this as a condition for halting the country’s slide toward collapse.
Sudan at a Dangerous Crossroads
With General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan steering the country deeper into Iranian alignment and Prime Minister-designate Kamal Idris seen largely as a civilian façade for entrenched military-Islamist power blocs, Sudan faces a perilous choice:
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Accept Iranian backing for its war effort at the cost of sovereignty and isolation, or
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Submit to U.S. pressure and risk internal political implosion.
For now, the Sudanese people bear the heaviest burden — trapped between collapsing state institutions, intensifying warfare, and looming regional confrontation.
As Israel recalibrates its security posture and Washington increases pressure, one question overshadows all others:
Will Sudan become the next battlefield in the escalating shadow war between Iran and Israel — or can it still be pulled back from the brink
